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In
this issue:
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In
a presidential election many anticipate to be one of the tightest in
modern history, national polling is yet again on the minds of reporters,
pundits, and all who converse around the water cooler. Constantly barraged
by polls purporting discrepant results, whom do you trust? The
quick answer is: everybody and nobody. Any self-respecting pollster will
tell you that it is a mistake to focus too closely on the results from a
single poll. Your best bet is to consider the findings from a variety of
scientific public opinion polls that are as comparable as possible. Always
make sure that when you compare poll results you pay special attention to
who was polled (e.g., likely voters versus registered voters, national
versus statewide polls) and when they were polled. If
you still find yourself skeptical of national poll results, you should be.
Always remember that this is not a national popular vote election; what
matters is the Electoral College. Lest we forget, the current President
lost the national popular vote but won enough states to defeat his
opponent. Pay closer attention to statewide polls of “battleground”
states (of which, unfortunately, Georgia is not a member). If
you really want to know why we have seen such dramatic differences in
otherwise comparable national polls, hold on tightly because the answer
gets tricky. Forget what you have read so far about the impact of cell
phones, caller id, and other measures designed to stymie telemarketers;
those just aren’t the cause. For that matter, federal and state
do-not-call lists aren’t even designed to prevent scientific polls, so
they don’t affect who does or does not get called for a poll. Sure,
polling used to be easier 10 years ago, but that doesn’t mean that it
has become less reliable. The science of polling continues to advance, and
the data that come out of that science show that – at least for now –
cell phones and the like have a negligible effect on the validity
telephone survey outcomes. What
do tend to influence findings are minor differences between polling
organizations. We are not talking about ideological differences, because
nobody trusts a pollster who “massages” results to make his or her
client look better (including that pollster’s political party). Things
that matter include what a polling organization considers “no
opinion”, and what steps are taken to adjust the data for inadvertent
error (such as age discrepancies in who tends to answer telephone calls)
after they have been collected. A relatively safe way to take all of these differences between polling organizations into account when you interpret results is to monitor the findings from one organization over time, and make inferences of opinion change that way. Of course, if you find all this reading on methodology and poll results is merely whetting your palate for more answers, you know who to call! |
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Morehouse
School of Medicine (MSM) is a historically black In
October 2003, MSM and SRG began a two-phase project to increase the
visibility of the Morehouse Medical Associates Comprehensive Family
Healthcare Center (CFHC). In the first phase, SRG conducted three focus
groups with CFHC patients and one focus group with MSM employees about
their personal experiences at the CFHC and other Morehouse Medical
Associates (MMA) clinics. Using the results of these focus groups, SRG
conducted a telephone survey of residents in four targeted zip codes to
discover factors leading to physician choice. MSM
used the data from this research project to develop a marketing plan for
the CFHC and its new clinic in East Point. That plan included promotion on
major market radio and television stations, a soft opening, followed by a
grand opening, at the facility and advertisement in Atlanta-based
publications. Six months from the July 2004 opening, MSM plans to
review the results of the marketing plan to come up with objectives going
forward. |
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Alex
Trouteaud has joined the staff of Schapiro Research Group, Inc. as a
Research Analyst. Alex is a research methodologist with training in
applied sociology. He received his BS in Psychology from Eckerd
College in St. Petersburg, Florida, and his MA in Sociology from Baylor
University in Waco, Texas. He expects to receive his PhD in Applied
Sociology from Baylor this December. Alex worked for several years
as an analyst at Baylor’s Center for Community Research and Development
as well as a private consultant. Over the past few years, Alex
developed strategic research for corporate and non-profit clients at the
local, state, and national level. Alex brings state-of-the-industry
skills in research design, statistical analysis, and social measurement to
Schapiro Research Group. As
an applied researcher, Alex specializes in designing customized research
to provide clients with the critical data they need to be competitive in
business and politics. He uses methodologically sophisticated
techniques that provide high quality information in an easy-to-understand
format. As
a professional, Alex maintains close relationships with both the American
Association for Public Opinion Research and the Southern Sociological
Society. Alex’s research has been recognized by the National
Science Foundation, the Southern Sociological Society, and the American
Society for Training and Development. He has written for a number of
publications, and examples of his recent contributions to professional
literature can be found in the Journal
of Applied Sociology, Social
Science Computer Review, and
Public Works Management & Policy. Alex
grew up in the Atlanta area and is happy to return with his wife and young
son. We are delighted that he has chosen to make his professional home
with us |
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In January 2004, Schapiro Research Group began the eUpdate to keep clients and friends of SRG informed about the firm's activities. Feel free to forward this email. To add yourself to or remove yourself from this eUpdate list, please send an email to info@schapiroresearchgroup.com. |
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Schapiro Research Group, Inc. 127 Peachtree St. NE Suite 812 Atlanta, GA 30303 (404) 584-5215 (404) 581-0058 FAX |
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Good luck to all of SRG’s clients in elections this November!
